SegmentProp — San Francisco Real Estate Analytics by Neighborhood Tier
Data-driven SF real estate analytics segmented by neighborhood tier. Track quarterly $/sqft trends, Case-Shiller indices, and the Hourglass Market effect across 14 SF neighborhoods from Q1 2015 to Q1 2026.
The Hourglass Market
Appreciation is strongest at the extremes. High-Growth neighborhoods (Bayview +78%, Excelsior +68%) and Luxury (Pacific Heights, Marina) are both outperforming the city median. Mid-Tier neighborhoods are the squeeze zone — paying near-peak prices for the segment with the weakest rate-hike resilience.
Four Market Tiers (Q1 2026)
- Luxury (~$1,050–$1,387/sqft): Pacific Heights ($1,387/sqft, +32%), Marina District ($1,050/sqft, +28%)
- Premium (~$935–$1,258/sqft): Noe Valley ($1,275/sqft, +30%), Hayes Valley ($1,072/sqft, +31%), Mission Bay ($983/sqft, +45%)
- Mid-Tier (~$700–$930/sqft): The Mission ($868/sqft, +34%), SoMa ($928/sqft, +29%), Sunset District ($1,070/sqft, +65%), Richmond District ($900/sqft, +47%), Glen Park ($980/sqft, +26%), Bernal Heights ($940/sqft, +31%)
- High-Growth (~$420–$710/sqft): Bayview ($685/sqft, +78%), Excelsior ($710/sqft, +68%), Daly City ($585/sqft, +39%)
Investor Analysis
Best Asymmetric Bet: Mid-Tier Condos in AI Corridors
Mission Bay, Hayes Valley, SoMa — Depressed 10–20% below 2022 peak despite being in SF's highest-demand employment corridors. AI office absorption (OpenAI, Anthropic, Salesforce) is driving recovery. Most rate-sensitive segment — a 75–150 bps cut adds 8–18% to opportunity.
Momentum Play: Bayview / Excelsior
Highest absolute % appreciation in SF metro (+68–78% over 10 years). Affordability-driven demand from displaced Mission and SoMa renters.
Avoid: Mid-Tier SFH (Glen Park, Bernal Heights, Cole Valley)
Paying near-peak prices (+26–31% from 2015) for the segment with the weakest rate-hike resilience and slowest recovery.
Data Sources
City-wide index: S&P/Case-Shiller SF Home Price Index via FRED (series SFXRSA, SFXRCSA). Neighborhood $/sqft: bundled estimates derived from agent-reported data, Redfin/Zillow research, and CoreLogic transaction data for 14 neighborhoods across 45 quarters (Q1 2015–Q1 2026).
Pages